We Have A Road Map

I have taken permission to quote part of an email exchange with one of our long standing subscriber, who knows the meaning of patience and looking at longer term picture:

Adrian McMahon Stone	4:54 PM (20 hours ago)
to me

You have nerves of steel BB!

I feel like throwing in the bearish towel..with all the other bears.. a sure contrarian sign.

I will commence my ******* next week.

All the best

Adrian

To which I replied:

BB Finance <bbfinanceblog@gmail.com>	9:36 PM (15 hours ago)
to Adrian

But surely you are reading my Newsletters and Emails!
Did I not write about the BOYZ pushing SPX past 1600 about 10 days back and few times thereafter?
Everything is going according to plan.
No need for panic my friend.
Have a great weekend.
BB

Just to demonstrate that we are not flying blind. We are well aware of what is happening around us, risks and rewards and we are positioning accordingly. 

We do not believe in fancy charts although we execute our trades based on TA. And we are looking a much longer time frame. Mostly in months and years not in weeks, leave alone days. We are looking at what will happen in 2018-20 not next week. I know this is not for everyone and we get anxious / worried when a position initially goes against us. But then I have faith on my system and have seen it work better in longer term. That is why I am long grain today when no one loves it. That's why we went out of gold at $1660 over 2  months back and waited patiently before we get long again. Regular readers will remember our call for Apple many months back. 

Of course we have our share of misses but looking back, had I hold on to those positions for longer term, most of them would have turned winners.

On the whole the winners are far more in numbers and longer we wait in a position, better our rate of success.

People send email asking how to subscribe. I have quite a few selected subscribers who have been with me for long time. There was a time when I took sabbatical for a year and wanted to spend time writing  They have been with me since then. But now I am back to my high pressure  12 hours + day job and I really do not have much time for blogging, however much I love it. But I am committed to all my subscribers, that I should be able to reply to every question, every email, that they may have. All I want folks to know that there are alternative methods of investing, we do not have to hit every ball and score on every turn. I used to provide it free here in this blog but then folks do not value free stuff and most are looking for quick gain. So my style may not be suitable for all. Better to provide it to those who are on the same page with me.

I will close by repeating one of the old calls. That "Tectonic plates of the financial world" are shifting. If I would still be writing in 2018 and you would still be reading it, we will exchange notes about that call.

Safe trading , no, safe investing everyone.

Have a great weekend.

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Life In The Fast Lane

Or would you like "Hotel California"?

Either way the thrill of going up and up and never to worry about coming down must be real giddy.
Didn't I say not to short yet.
Although all your indicators are screaming over bought most are throwing in the towel and joining the buy express.
Where do you think we are in the following curve?

My take is, we are right at the Euphoria stage.

And that was why I wrote don't short yet about 2 weeks back.

Although we went out of the long positions in Jan. end , we did not short the market. We gave up this 80-90 points on the upside because we want to catch all the ride down and not take any risk. And if any of you are still long, now may be the time to cash in for good.

After many months, we are now ready to take new positions and subscribers have been given the tip and trades for the coming week. 

And no, I am not looking to get rich by selling Newsletter Subscription.

Good luck trading all.

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Don't Short Yet.

Just a quick note.

A 40 point drop in SPX in one day is  reason enough to say: "I told you, the risks are high".
 We went out at 1510 and today the market is around 1550. I have one question who were long in the last two months. Did you get out in time?

However, I think it is not yet time to short the market. We still need to give it some more time and the subscribers will know when to short.

Same goes with Gold. It is still not the right time to long gold because cycles did not bottom and there will be separate email to subscribers when the time is right.

Grains did not suffer much damage today because all weak hands were flashed out last week. And Oil has some more to drop but I am not shorting it.

All in all, we are in good shape and hope everyone is raising cash to take advantage of the coming Tsunami.

Note to the Troll: New subscription rate for the month of May and onward is $ 99 per month. Only the existing subscribers for April get to renew it at $ 49.

Good luck trading all.

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Troll Attack

Last week one Troll send some abusive email because of my call of long grain. As always with the Trolls with origin from unknown fathers, they are afraid to give their name or email or engage in any conversation about their point of view. This one was no exception.
What the Troll does not understand that my time horizon could be different from his. (I assume it is a he). I am looking out 6-9 months out and may be some more. And Wheat sold off 6.5% from around $700 only to come back to that level in few days. I think the Troll saw a paper loss and panicked. But if you have a heart of a chicken and no conviction in long term trend, why bother with investing in stock market. Buy a lottery ticket from your neighbourhood convenience store.
I have successfully called for :

• Start of the up-trend from beginning of 2013.
• Gone out of long gold position at the correct time and despite intermittent bounces, advised everyone to stay out of gold and silver.
• Advised not to short the market till price confirmation is obtained.

I would think anyone of the above would be sufficient for some gratitude but that is asking too much as I see it now.

You may ask, if I know that it is not yet time to short the market, why did I get out of equities and gave up 60-80 points rally? My answer is I am not a market timer. From experience I know that it is impossible to get out at the exact top or enter at the exact bottom. I also know that risks are high and risk reward ratio is not favourable. I am not trying to score a hit with every 10-20 point up or down, rather looking for very long term trends and ride with it. 

But I have come to realize that financial blogging a futile exercise. These days I am lucky if I get any time during the week to write anything. And I am working on setting up an offshore hedge fund and work with high net-worth clients. Folks who don't crap in their pants with short term loss but look for longer term trend and profit. Who can hold their drinks so to day.

So my dear Troll, all the power to you. I am off to something bigger and better. 

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Shifting Of Tectonic Plates

The earth is made up of moving tectonic plates and yet we don't ever feel them moving, except when it is too late. That's when we have tsunami or earthquake and have death or destruction upon us.

Believe it or not, the tectonic plates of our finance world are moving and moving fast. Today the central bankers of the world led by Bernanke of the Fed are giving the last moment gift to the top 1% of the oligarchy. Because very soon another tsunami or earth quake will visit us soon which will make 2008-9 look like a movie trailer.

I am not a fan of Prechter or ZH and I do not like to continue spawning storing of imminent collapse. I have been long till January and have been on the sideline since. But we have not shorted the market despite various indicators saying top. Nor did I buy the theory of collapse of the world till now.

However, I see that we are reaching an important infliction point. My favourite route remains SPX reaching an important top in April, followed by a deep correction in summer. That should be followed by another sharp rally in Q3/Q4 before the onset of a deep bear market.  The exact timing of going long or short will vary and will be available to subscribers. These are general market direction but we use many parameters and price points to decide when to go long or short. The guiding principle is that the only way of wining is not losing.

For the month of Feb/March, many have paid subscription only to hear me say : wait , don't short, need confirmation of this or that before taking any action. There were no instant gratification because we are not looking to score on every 10 point turn. Rather the focus is on weekly or monthly trend and not get distracted by the news. If that is your focus as well, you are welcome to join the gang of subscribers. But if short term trading is your focus, I am not the right guy.

Hope you had a great Easter weekend and all ready for the month of April. It is going to be exciting in fits and starts and most likely will demonstrate the formation of an important top. But we are not going to front run and will wait for confirmation before taking any action.

Wish you all best of luck in your trading / investing.

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Same Old, Same Old.

It has been a while I did a post here.
Fact of the matter is, while I am super busy and all the sabaticals that I took last year is now catching up with me, there is nothing much to do but wait patiently.
Yesterday the markets had a bearish reversal day. And today it is pumping up. All to convince the sheeples that the only way to get rich is TBFD.
So what yesterday's selling was all about? Did you say Cyprus?  Oh yes. The Euro politicians have shown that in case of emergency, they will put their hands where ever they can. Earlier they would socialize the loss and privatize the profits. Now they would rob the common men to save the Banksters. Great news now that we know that no body's money is safe.
And what is today's ramp all about. It seems because home prices are now at the highest level since 2008? So the problem of Euro Zone has been solved and we have the collective memory of a gold fish.
But none of these news drive the market. Rather they drive the retail investor sentimement. And speaking of that the powers that be (TBTF Banksters) know how to manipulate that retail sentiment. Over the last few months, the bottom level is being convinced that we are at the beginning of a new bull market. Only then the retail will buy stocks and they normally buy at the peak.
However, I think we will continue to see this rollar coaster ride for the major part of April before any decent correction. So my advice to the subscribers have been to stay on the sideline and avoid all kinds of temptations. It is still not the time to short yet.
We may get occational day or two when we will have 1% sell off but again we will see markets being pumped up on low volume. Doing anything in such sitiation is bad for our financial health.
I know it is damn difficult to remain patient for month after month and do nothinig when the entire 24/7 news media is trumpeting how we are missing on the golden opportunity of getting rich and retire quickly. But that is their agenda. Our goal is to protect our savings and investments.
Just remember, what goes up, comes down. And Wall St. is not above the laws of gravity.
 

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Quo Vadis SPX?

Some say SPX is headed for the moon. Well, that was bit of an exaggeration, but surely we hear talk of SPX 2000. Personally, I think a long term top can be found around 1600. The question that I ask, whether that long term top is now or still few months down the line.

While many are pointing to various extreme reading of various indicators, I do not see any sign of correction yet. Only once so far the sell signal was triggered but that did not match with my other indicators and I decided not to short even when the sell signal was on. On hindsight, it was a good decision because had we been short, it would have caused us emotional pain and in some cases, the short positions have been puked already resulting in actual loss.

While I am advising subscribers not to short and stay on the sideline, for some of you who are short already, I would say that bear the pain if you do not want to book the loss. Nothing goes up for ever and this moon rocket is also subject to the law of gravity. Ben and other powers that be think that stock market is equal to economy and a higher stock market means a strong economy. So the never ending money printing and inflating the balloon goes on. We have seen this many times in the past.

And we know how it all ends. This time is never different. Only we do not want to front run and get run over.

So far the bubble has been formed in Equities and we have not yet seen the rise is other asset prices like Oil or PM sector. Before the bubble burst, we will see all these asset classes rise again. Oil should take out its all time high and gold should make a new high. Question is when. For now, the BOYZ are working on a simple plan. That is to get the retail and lagging fund managers move in to equities. It works on the simple hope that some else will buy the stocks at a higher price at a later date. If you don't believe, just look at the chart of Apple few months back. When Apple crossed $ 700, they were  talking about Apple $1000 and folks who bought Apple at $ 700, were hoping to flip it around soon. Same story now with something else.

Dow ended in red this Friday after 10 consecutive weekly gains and 8 new all time highs in a row. And SPX is trying to make its all time high. I think it is so damn risky to go long here but also not the right time to short. Not yet. There are other fish to fry in commodities and there is less risk there.

The blog posts have been irregular and my apologies for the tardiness. I intent to post at least two/three times a week but time is difficult to come by. In any case, I did not have much to say since my last post except repeating that:

Cash is King.

Have a great weekend folks. 

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